Buenos dìas, my friends
Cup'O'Joe in hand, #StokeLevelSolid reminiscing about the #Scotchguard dance my pops used to have me perform in the lodge on days like this. He used to tell me it would help me stay out on the mountain longer, right before he placed the garbage bag over my head, pulled my head and beanie out the top, set my Smith goggles in place, and I was ready to slay the mountain. Now, that was before way before the Gore, and yes, back in the very early 70's... And it did make me stronger! Jeans, K2 Cheeseburgers, Spadman bindings, Trash-bag jackets, and #Scotchguard...
That is what today's all about: Warm temps, a little rain, and snain up to 8k to start the day, with NWS forecast models dropping snow levels down into the 6k range mid-morning. The NWS KDAX radar has the system sliding south towards Bear Valley as I type, then onto Dodge Ridge, with the system arriving mid-morning at China Peak.
So get out and getcha some today; it'll be wet and windy, winds gusting across the ridge tops 19/46mph South at (178º), so level set your expectation for upper mountain lifts; we may experience some wind challenges as the system pushes through. Temps are now starting to drop slightly at Bear Valley. BearTop is 29º with base temps 31º, so we will have a mix of snow conditions from wet to slightly wet at the summit. All in all, it's base-building material, my friends. I'd rock a wider ski, 99mm to 104mm, to help float; on-piste will be where it's at if you are not a strong, off-piste skier or rider; the softer and wet snow can be challenging, to say the least, so stay to the piste, and enjoy every turn today.
NAM 3km - 6hr | 12hr Precip, MSLP, Thickness (dam)
Quick mover: 3" to 6" at BV, with Dodge looking at 3" to 4" at the summit. NAM 3km Composite Reflectivity + Precip Type
Not a heavy-hitter: The Composites have the system hitting all three NorCal resorts. However, they lack a solid and intense band. If we see 4" to 6" that's fantastic, and build up our base for the next round of #MaNatural.
NAM 3km Temps (ºf) 6hr MAX and MIN
Flexing Temps: Now dropping mid-morning; if we get a break, we will see these drop around 8am as the system blankets Bear and Dodge, and with this, if the system drops far enough south to China Peak, we may have the temps for a top to bottom coverage enhancing the total snowfall.
NAM 3km - Winds - 10m Surface | 850Mb Upper-Air
The challenge: the winds are there, and we have tracked a few ridge-top gusts in the 46mph to 81mph zone as #MotherNature moves through the region. There is the possibility that winds drop, and she settles in for a bit longer stay and a bit more snow accumulation. But, that's a wait, watch and see scenario. NAM 3km - Snow (10:1 ratio) Models - 6hr - 12hr - Snow Totals
The Money shots: We have above the NAM 3km snow forecasts, 6hr, 12hr, and Totals in a (10:1) ratio. Models indicate we will see approx. 4" to 10" over the next 12hrs+. I hope this is the case, however, and a caveat insert: the storm-tract, winds, and temps all play huge roles in these models... #KeepTheFaith #GorillaSnot #BaseBuilding Back to the basics, it's a GoreTex® and Goodtimes type of day. A wet, windy, and wild, solid day to get out and improve your skill set in heavier snow conditions. I'd, for sure, get your gear waxed so you have no issues traveling between snow conditions. Use a hydro-carbon all-temp, mix it in with a bit of red and blue, and you should be set. Mountain teams will be out in force tonight, working on the new snow and ensuring we have the best conditions along the west slope. I'll be on the Mtn at Bear Valley tomorrow, I hope to see you all out and about. Catch me, grab a selfie, post, and I'll give you two tickets to ride anytime this season... If you have any questions, concerns, or comments, email me at Coop@Calipassresorts.com Stay'nThirsty for POW Coop